Can the Saudis be a net oil importer by 2030? Yes!

Saudis 'may run out of oil to export by 2030’

A report by Citigroup has warned that Saudi Arabia could run out of oil to export by 2030, raising fears that oil prices may rise significantly in coming years.

By Emily Gosden

Saudi Arabia consumes 25pc of its oil output and oil accounts for about 50pc of its electricity production. With peak power demand rising by about 8pc per year, the nation is aiming to more than double its power capacity by 2032 through new nuclear and solar instalations.

If power demand were to grow as predicted and there were no change to the electricity fuel supply mix, “we estimate Saudi Arabia would be a net importer of oil by 2030,”.

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This scenario is very plausible. Much of the oil used by the Saudis locally is used in air conditioning. As the population increases and gets increasingly urban, more power will be used for this purpose. To assume that we can get continuing access to cheap oil is irresponsible. We have to take every step to change our oil based economy to a sustainable energy economy.

As a start we will have to reduce our dependency on oil and reduction in the use of oil is a major step. As 60% of the oil we used is in the transportation sector this is where most gains can be made. A move to hybrid vehicle technology fully implemented will reduce oil used by half. This is a proven technology and it works. There should be no reason why it can't be implemented.

China Increases Rare Earth Quota

This article from AP announcing China's relenting to pressure to increase rare earth exports. We have to question why other countries are not willing to put in or increase their own production. Is environmental degradation acceptable in some countries but not others? While we are debating this question we should ensure that every step to reduce the consumption of rare earth metals have to be explored and adopted.
This brings me to the Power Jockey and battery reconditioning. We have proven that we can double the service life of HV batteries with these methods pioneered by the Battery Clinic. Hybrid and electric cars are set to replace gas guzzling petrol versions as fuel prices escalates. This will increase demand for high capacity batteries and rare earth metal use. This technology developed by the Battery Clinic will stretch out our rare and limited resource a little further.

August 23/08/2012

BEIJING (AP) - China on Wednesday slightly increased this year's quota for rare earths exports under controversial controls on the exotic minerals needed by manufacturers of mobile phones and other high-tech products.

The Commerce Ministry announced an export quota of 9,770 tons for the second half of the year. Added to the quota for the first six months of the year, that brings the 2012 total to 30,996 tons - an increase of about 3 per cent over 2011.

China has about 30 per cent of the world's rare earths deposits but accounts for more than 90 per cent of production. It alarmed global manufacturers by imposing export curbs in 2009 while it tries to build up a domestic processing industry to capture more of the profits that go to US, Japanese and European companies that transform rare earths into mobile phone batteries, camera lenses and other products..........

Net Oil Producers

Top World Oil Producers, Exporters, Consumers, and Importers, 2006
(millions of barrels per day)
Producers1	Total oilproduction	Exporters2	Net oilexports	Consumers3	Total oilconsumption	Importers4	Net oilimports
1. Saudi Arabia	10.72	1. Saudi Arabia	8.65	1. United States	20.59	1. United States	12.22
2. Russia	9.67	2. Russia	6.57	2. China	7.27	2. Japan	5.1
3. United States	8.37	3. Norway	2.54	3. Japan	5.22	3. China	3.44
4. Iran	4.12	4. Iran	2.52	4. Russia	3.1	4. Germany	2.48
5. Mexico	3.71	5. United Arab Emirates	2.52	5. Germany	2.63	5. South Korea	2.15
6. China	3.84	6. Venezuela	2.2	6. India	2.53	6. France	1.89
7. Canada	3.23	7. Kuwait	2.15	7. Canada	2.22	7. India	1.69
8. United Arab Emirates	2.94	8. Nigeria	2.15	8. Brazil	2.12	8. Italy	1.56
9. Venezuela	2.81	9. Algeria	1.85	9. South Korea	2.12	9. Spain	1.56
10. Norway	2.79	10. Mexico	1.68	10. Saudi Arabia	2.07	10. Taiwan	0.94
11. Kuwait	2.67	11. Libya	1.52	11. Mexico	2.03
12. Nigeria	2.44	12. Iraq	1.43	12. France	1.97
13. Brazil	2.16	13. Angola	1.36	13. United Kingdom	1.82
14. Iraq	2.01	14. Kazakhstan	1.11	14. Italy	1.71
			38.25				33.03

Our dependency on oil and why we have to move to hybrids

How dependent are we on oil imports
New Zealand imports 97% of its oil. Oil is the lifeblood of our economy. So a vital question must be -- how vulnerable is New Zealand to oil supply shocks? -- Whether from short term disruption, or due to an on-going and perhaps permanent decline in world oil exports?

You would think that discussion about this vital issue would be front and centre of political and economic debate, given the current high oil prices, unrest in the Middle East, and with the UK government developing an oil shock response plan. Instead there is close to zero public discussion about New Zealand's oil security.

What are the key facts?

1. New Zealand imports 97% of its oil. About 39 million barrels was imported as crude oil for the year ended March 2011 and was refined at the Marston Point refinery. ( Read More )