Should you buy a full electric vehicle

Price and data listed here are average and used for comparative purposes only

Maker	Model	Price	Battery	Weight	Range	Economy
	Mitsubishi I-Miev	38,000 usd	16 kWh ($8000)	1080 kg	112 kms	30 kW-hrs /160 kms
	Nissan Leaf	40,000 usd	24 kWh ($12,000)	1521 kg	117 kms	34 kW-hrs /160 kms
	Ford Focus	40,000 usd	23 kWh ($12,000)	1674 kg	122 kms	32 kW-hrs /160 kms
	Chevrolet Volt	30,000 usd	16 kWh ($8000)	1715 kg	56 kms	36 kW-hrs /160 kms
	Tesla Roadster	140,000  usd	53 kWh ($28000)	1235 kg	400 kms	36 kW-hrs /160 kms

Purpose : We will assume that you purchase a vehicle to get you from A to B within your budget and circumstance. For a family saloon the choice would be the Nissan Leaf, Ford Focus and the Chevrolet Volt. The Mitsubishi I-MiEV would be for the short range city commuter while the Tesla will be for those with deep pockets.

Price : Full EV's are priced around US$40,000. This price is about twice the price of a standard vehicle. If you deduct the cost of the battery the price would be comparable to that of a standard vehicle.

Range : For the full EV range per charge is around 120 kms. This is a function of the battery size and weight of the vehicle. This makes the EV suitable only for the short commutes. The Chevy Volt also has a gasoline engine making it suitable for use as a standard family car. The Tesla has a range of 400 kms but the price makes it suitable for those who needs a vehicle as a personality statement.

Battery : This is the bane of all electric vehicle. The lithium ion battery is expected to last 7000 cycles and at 100 kms per cycle the standard EV should do 700,000 kms over it's useful life. I am very sceptical that this figure can be achieved. Even half the distance in my reckoning would be a stretch.

When the time comes for battery replacement the cost of replacement will most probably be more than the vehicle is worth. The argument that with economies of scale the cost of batteries will come down. This is a fallacy. Both Lithium and Yttrium the rare earth metal used in it's production are exotic metals.  If demand increases price will increase due to supply constraints. Economies of scale does not apply.

Putting a life span of 8 years or even 10 years for a vehicle is a turn off for vehicle owners. A typical vehicle goes through several class of owners. First are those who purchase the vehicle new and would use it foe 2 to 3 years selling it then for half it's value. Then comes those who would purchase a near new vehicle also keeping it for 3 to 5 years. Finally those who would purchase a cheap used vehicle expecting to spend a little more for maintenance and fuel economy.

The problem here is that with the cost of battery replacement the people in the second group ie those that would purchase a near new vehicle will find that their vehicle has no resale or even trade in value.

People in the third group will not have the money for a new battery. Those in the first and second group can afford a new battery but they would not settle for a 5 to 6 year old vehicle. It is for this reason that EV's will have great difficulty in finding a mass market.

Hybrids : Hybrid vehicles have taken off and will soon displace the standard petrol vehicles. For one the batteries used are Nimh to facilitate the fast charge and discharge and cost only around $2000 to replace. Many early hybrids (Prius NHW10) are still running 16 years later thanks to HV battery reconditioning technology coupled with HV battery augmentation with the Power Jockey allowing weaker HV batteries to work comfortably with the vehicle systems.

Already we see Renault and Mitsubishi giving up on EV's after spending more than $4 billion in development. Are electric cars dead? I believe not. We cannot keep burning fossil fuels as we are basically fowling our own nest.

"How many times must you be socked in the face before you admit that global warming is causing the wild fluctuations in our weather and 1 billion cars is the main cause ?" When we deem that the cost to us in infrastructure destruction and rebuild is too high we will place a premium on burning fossil fuels. It is when we decide to do this that I see a come back of the EV's with better battery technology and clean energy to drive it.

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